Many Californians moving out find big housing cost savings and faster routes to homeownership, UC Berkeley study finds
UC Berkeley Policy Lab analysis finds people leaving California (2016–2025) saved about $671–$672 monthly on housing and were 48% more likely to own a home within seven years.
Key takeaways
- Average savings: Movers out of state reduced combined monthly housing costs by about $671–$672 (from $2,376 to $1,705).
- Homeownership: Leaving California raised the likelihood of owning a home by 48% (an 11 percentage-point increase) within seven years.
- Price gap: Typical destination neighborhoods had median home prices roughly $396,000 lower (~48%) than the California neighborhoods departed.
- Destinations: Net outflows concentrated in nearby lower-cost states — Nevada, Idaho, Oregon and Arizona lead per-capita inflows from Californians.
Key information
Who did the study: The analysis was performed by the California Policy Lab at UC Berkeley, using anonymized household-level data that follows the same households from 2016 to 2025.
Main finding: Households that relocated out of California saw combined monthly housing-cost reductions averaging $671–$672 (from $2,376 in California to $1,705 in destination neighborhoods). Sources include reporting by the Los Angeles Times and analysis shared with Realtor.com.
How the study measured housing costs
The study defines monthly housing costs to include mortgage or rent payments, utilities, property taxes and insurance. That combined measure is what falls by roughly $671–$672 on average after a household leaves California (Los Angeles Times; Realtor.com).
Renters: Renters who left California saw the largest drop in rent — about 30% lower after moving, roughly $631 less per month (Fox Business).
Home prices and ownership rates in destination communities
Homeowners benefit from large price differences. The median home price in the typical destination neighborhood is about $396,000 lower — roughly 48% less — than the median in the California neighborhood the household left, helping explain higher ownership rates after moving (Fox Business).
Ownership rates: 60% owned in destination neighborhoods versus 53% in the California origin neighborhoods.
“The roughly $400,000 difference in median home prices is a key reason families who leave California often find a path to ownership more quickly,” said Executive Director Evan White of the California Policy Lab, as reported by Fox Business.
Comparing moves within and into California
Moves within California: Little to no improvement — average monthly housing costs rose slightly from $2,263 to $2,277, a $14 increase (Realtor.com).
Moving to California: People who moved into California from other states typically faced a large jump: average monthly housing costs rose from $1,754 to $2,418 — about a $664 increase (Los Angeles Times).
Homeownership changes over time
Because the dataset tracks the same households over several years, researchers measured changes before and after moving. After seven years, people who left California were 48% more likely (an 11 percentage-point rise) to own a home than while in California. By contrast, people who moved to California saw a 27% increase (about 6 percentage points) after seven years (Los Angeles Times; Fox Business).
Where Californians are going
Most departures head to nearby, lower-cost states. Reported net migration per 10,000 residents (2016–2025):
- Nevada: +81 per 10,000
- Idaho: +64 per 10,000
- Oregon: +37 per 10,000
- Arizona: +36 per 10,000
- Other states with net inflows include Texas (+11), Tennessee (+13) and Florida (+4).
Source reporting summarized by Fox Business.
Who is leaving California
Departures increasingly come from wealthier neighborhoods. The share of moves from top-third median-income neighborhoods rose by 6.4 percentage points from 2016 to 2025. Since the pandemic, the typical origin neighborhood has been about 8.7% more affluent than before (Los Angeles Times).
Broader cost pressures pushing people out
The report places housing alongside other price pressures. Relative to many destination states, California’s everyday costs are higher: groceries ~11% higher, gas ~40% higher and utilities ~61% higher in many places — reinforcing moves out of state (Fox Business).
Sacramento and county-level shifts
The Policy Lab highlights large local changes. Example: Sacramento County saw 269,600 people leave from 2016–2025 while 198,500 arrived — a net loss of 71,100 residents, illustrating regional out-migration patterns (Policy Lab discussion video).
Reporting and methodology
The report, titled “Priced Out: Relocation Amidst California’s Affordability Crisis,” uses anonymized household-level tracking to follow moves and measure changes in housing costs and ownership over time. This approach compares the same households before and after moving rather than comparing different groups across places (Fox Business; Los Angeles Times).
Implications for San Luis Obispo
Economic impact: Continued out-migration could reduce demand from higher-income buyers in San Luis Obispo County, loosening pressure short term but potentially shifting the local population toward lower-income renters and essential workers.
Local housing market: If departures disproportionately involve residents with means, median home prices in San Luis Obispo may face downward pressure over time; however, affordable-housing needs could grow as lower- and middle-income households remain.
Workforce and services: Employers in hospitality, education and public services may find hiring and retention harder if higher earners leave; reduced housing turnover can also increase commute times for workers living farther away.
Policy consequences: The finding that moving within California rarely improves housing costs suggests local policy changes alone may be insufficient — some residents address affordability by relocating out of state, prompting renewed calls for zoning, production incentives and rental support.
Everyday life: Families weighing a move should consider that leaving California can produce significant housing-cost savings and a clearer path to homeownership after several years, balanced against community ties and school considerations.
